Feasible mitigation actions in developing countries

961 Today’s developed countries account for the largest share of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions accumulated in the atmosphere. However, recent years have witnessed a rapid increase in developing countries’ emissions, most prominently in China, which became the world’s largest emitter in 2006. China’s energy-related CO2 emissions per capita (7.1 t), even though still below the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average, almost reached the European Union (EU-27) average of 7.4 t in 20121. If other developing countries follow China’s carbon-intensive growth pattern, ambitious climate stabilization targets — such as the target to limit warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, agreed by the world community — are likely to become infeasible, even if industrialized countries were to drastically reduce their emissions2. Analyses with large-scale integrated assessment models often conclude that mitigation costs for developing countries are relatively moderate3. Some recent studies have highlighted the potential positive effects of climate measures on economic growth4–6 and the associated promise to create new economic dynamism by means of a ‘green industrial revolution’7. Despite these optimistic assessments of the possibility to re-orient growth paths towards ‘low-carbon development’8, this Perspective argues that — although possible in theory — it is fraught with considerable obstacles in practice due to the central role that fossil fuels have played and continue to play for economic development. The remainder of this Perspective is organized as follows. First, we discuss the historic relationship between economic growth, energy use and CO2 emissions in detail. The second part highlights major challenges to low-carbon transitions in developing countries, concluding that we need to be cautious in what can be expected with regard to low-carbon development there. Third, we discuss feasible mitigation actions, focusing on subsidy reform, decentralized modern energy access for rural areas and fuel switching in the power sector.